Lisa Sieverts

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No Learning without Risk - First Dose First, and also some Agile

An interesting article making the case that countries should shift their vaccine plans to “First Dose First,” to get the maximum number of people at least partially protected. I’m interested in the Agile concepts that are buried here, such as “the best decisions are based in data and sometimes to get data we have to do an experiment with an uncertain outcome.”

No Learning Without Risk - Marginal REVOLUTION

Put differently shifting away from the default strategy to an alternative such as FDF or fractional dosing might be considered to be “risky”. But in this context, learning requires risk. When learning is desirable, it is also desirable to take on risk. Risk aversion can prevent learning and thus can be dangerous.